Russian Invasion of Ukraine a Western Intel and media false flag 2022. By Tim Brian Tufuga
The present conflict has been ongoing since the Ukrainian Nation has been an ideological conflict between pro-European supporters from the Pro Russian supporters amongst the Ukrainian people since the collapse of the former USSR.
The level of political instability has culminated with official allegations of corruption from Electoral fraud, political assassinations, political poisoning, and other surreptitious conspiracies, to confirm the instability of the soveriegn Nation of Ukraine since the first post USSR Ukrainian President was sworn into office in December 1991. Numerous protests have ensued culminating a number of coup d etat, and revolutions from the Orange Revolution of 2004 to the more recent Euromaiden Revolution, or the Revolution of Dignity in 2014, which was the mea culpa for the Russian Federation annexation of Crimea and the, inadvertantly, the casus belli for the initial Separatist regional conflict in East Ukraine, within the Donbass region, now unofficially known, as NovoRussia, or Novorossiya. Novorossiya, are the joint Separatist Oblasts of Luhansk and Donetsk.
To emphasis the culmination of events would result in a revolution against the incumbent Pro-Russian Govenrment when the then President of Ukraine, President Viktor Yanukovych had rejected the Ukrainian-European Relations Agreement, which would then result in his overthrow from the Post-Euromaiden Revolution, also known as the Maiden Revolution, or The Revolution of Dignity. The former Pro-Russian President would be forced into exile to Russia, via Crimea, to Southern Russia, in February, 2014.
In April, 2014, the falling out of the Pro Russian supporters from the Western Ukrainians and the Pro European, Maiden Revolutionaries, in Kiev, which would ignite the presentday political crisis, in Ukraine, since 2014.
The Minsk Agreement, in Belarus, 2015 brokered by European Observers, would result in a truce between the Pro Russian East Ukraine and the Pro-European West which would last in just two weeks before the firefight within the Eastern Separatist region would re-ignite breaking the truce and the 15 point agreement. The Minsk Agreement, remains the tangible peace accord between the East and Western Ukrainians which continues to be broken even as recent as the Kindergarten shelling, of a Line of Control within the Luhansk Oblast, by the firefight artillery exchanges between the Ukrainian Government Forces and the Pro-Russian Rebels, the Novorossiya Separatists, on February 17th, 2022.
Novorossiya: The separatist State of Eastern Ukraine.
(Flag of Novorossiya)
The Donbass region or the NovoRossiya Separatist State, which is the Eastern Ukrainian Separatist Oblasts of Luhansk and Donetsk, has been the region where the concentration of conflict between the Ukrainian Government Forces and Pro-Russian Separatists has been ongoing since 2014.
MH17 shootdown: The Russian refutation and the Ukrainian mea culpa for a casus belli conspiracy.
During the separatist movement conflict with the Ukrainian Govenrment forces, the allegation made by the Western media sources, that a Pro-Russian Surface to Air Missile, from an anti-Aircraft battery unit, based in the Donetsk Oblast, was responsible for shooting down an international commercial airline flying over the area of conflict between the Pro Russian Separatists and the Ukrainian Government forces. Accordingly, the claims and counter claims of who was directly responsible for the shootdown has been investigated by Western investigators without the open collaboration by either the Pro-Russian and or the Russian Government directly. Instead, the official rejection of the Pro-Russian or Russian military culpability has been flatly rejected by both the Pro-Russian Rebels and the Russian Government.
The MH17 shootdown, the Joint Investigation Team (JIT) led by the Danish and Australian Investigators, under the oversight by the Organisation for the security and co-operation in Europe (OSCE), the Russian Government official statement had rejected the JIT allegation as a Ukrainian and Western intelligence and propaganda conspiracy, and instead have alleged that the actual Buk missile system that was directly responsible for shooting down the MH17 was manufactued in Russia, in 1986, during the Ukrainian inclusion in the former USSR, and the same Buk Missile system was delivered to a Ukrainian Military unit, then based in Ternopil, Western Ukraine, in 1986.
The Russian official response is a counter allegation in that it was the Ukrainian Forces that had launched the missile, as it has been alleged that the Russian military were tracking the missile launch from Styla, from within the Donetsk Oblast, which was enclave pockets controlled by the Ukrainian Forces during the 2014 conflict, which were amongst the 27 known BUK Battery units capable for bringing down the MH17. It was further claimed by the Pro-Russian Rebels that with their limited military resources they were not armed with BUK SAMs and were only using low altitude anti-aircraft weapons in their ongoing conflict with the Ukrainian Forces. The Russian Official response included evidence of a purported invoice transaction of the specific BUK missile system manufacture and eventual consignment movement to Tenopil, Western Ukraine, from 1986, which was recorded during the former USSR period, in which the BUK was initially manufactured and delivered to the former USSR SAM Battery units within former USSR Ukraine from Soviet Era.
When the American and Ukrainian Government had initially signed a memorandum of understanding as part of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) which was ratified in 1991, and enforced in 1994, resulted in the scaling back of former Soviet ICBM systems, within Ukraine. Ukraine, up until the dissolution of the Soviet Union, had possessed up to a third of the global Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM), and Silos, within their territory, which, understandably, would prompt the Americans, and their NATO allies, to agree, implicitly, with the memorandum, to the security of Ukraine, in the event of any aggression from the Russian Federation and the CSTO.
The START Budapest memorandum 1994 between Ukraine and NATO which, therefore, inadvertantly, guarantee the National Soveriegn security of the Ukraine sovereign in exchange for Ukraine surrendering their vast stockpile of ICBMs.
Subsequent to the failure in the Pro-Russian Ukrainian Government administration to consolidate their political power within the Rada (Ukrainian Parliament) in Kiev. The Pro-Russian elements retreated to their respective Pro-Russian Oblast regions in the East of Ukraine and begun to promulgate cessation from Ukraine and in particular from the Western Ukrainian region, henceforth, the conflicts between the Separatist Pro-Russian Rebels from the Donetsk Oblast and the Luhansk Oblast, whose 87% Russian populations would ensure that the Ukrainian West would encounter a bloody war which would cost well over 14,000 Ukrainian likes, (including Ukrainians with Russian ancestry).
The Donbass region, which is the Eastern Ukrainian Separatist Oblasts of Luhansk and Donetsk, is the region where almost the entire concentration of the firefight between the Pro-Russian Rebels of the Novorossiya State, and the Ukrainian Government Forces have been ongoing since 2014.
The current stance of the Pro-Russian Rebels is to defy the Ukrainian Government's refusal to recognise the will of the predominantly Russian populated Donbass region will for self determination. The Ukrainian Government's overall agenda, it seems, would be for the Ukrainian Nation to join the European community as a member of the European Union, and in thus, militarily, become a member of the Noth Atlantic Treaty Organisation, NATO, thereby, threatening to undermine the Security Buffer zone between NATO and Russian directly.
President Putin, has emphatically declared that the inclusion of Ukraine into NATO membership and thereby placing NATO at the gates of Russia is unacceptable. The present show of military joint exercises with Belarus and other members of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), would strongly discourage this NATO membership inclusion even to the point of a military intervention in a whatever means necessary to deter the inclusion of Ukraine in NATO. Presently, NATO recognises Ukraine as a direct consequence of the Budapest Memorundum and have not acted in response of the Crimean annexation and the present Donbass incursion by Russian military material support since 2014.
The present crisis coincides, with the threat of Ukraine's attempt to gain full membership into NATO, which will therefore increase the responsiveness of NATO members to the Ukrainian political crisis by the overwhelming Pro-Russian influence from the East of Ukraine. Secondly, the Covid Pandemic crisis has resulted in nearly half a million of Russian Citizens Covid related deaths added to the over 112,000 Ukrainian Covid related death toll, which has increased the moribund domestic situation. Finally, the Navalny rise in popularity has also prompted President Putin to distract domestic attention from his own domestic political instability.
Energy Security crisis
The overall affect on the Gazprom gas prices have progressively increased in a seemingly bull market appreciation in the fear remains at 308 Rubles per share which remains high since October 2021. The fear of an imminent war and the likelihood of gas pipeline disruptions for Gas supplies to the European supplies is highly probable.
The recent explosions of gas pipelines in the Donbass region again confirms the fear of European markets having their gas supplies cut off from the impending war.
US Weapons sales to Ukraine.
Since January 14th, 2022, US Weapon sales to Ukraine has delivered over 80 tonnes of weapons, and ammunition, material, worth over $200million USD, for the defence of Ukraine from the impending Russian invasion. Further convincing the Russian Government that the verbal threat of a Russian invasion whilst may be an idle threat will, nevertheless, benefit the American Weapons manufacturers.
In the event that the invasion from the Russians dissipates as a false flag through a deliberate disinformation and misinformation dissemination by both the Russians and Western sources, the fact remains, the stock markets have been adversely or beneficially affected in a Bull Market appreciation of high valued assets, which would include the threat to energy security sources and with the appreciation of Defense Material assets particularly from Weapons and munition manufacturers in Europe, Asia, and especially the United States of America, the dominant weapons and munition manufacturer to the world.
In Conclusion.
The end game of the present crisis of an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine, seems, to my assessment, to be leading to yet another military intelligence dissemination false flag.
What most likely might come out of the present crisis is the following.
1. Ukraine gains full membership within the EU and most significantly gaining full NATO membership status.
2. The trade off. Donbass will eventually gain their Independant Sovereign State status and will serve as a SECURITY BUFFER STATE between a NATO member Nation of Ukraine from any physical contact with Russia.
3. Crimea will enjoin the Novorossiya Independant Republic State, again securing the Sevastopol Naval Port for the powerful Russian Navy Black Sea Fleet, from the Ukrainian Navy.
The final point will be considered a very delicate, dangerous, and uneasy, detente situation, which will only result in future skirmishes, and direct firefight contacts in the very near future. Again, that is yet another bridge the Balkan region will have to cross or to burn as the wind blows.
Tim Brian Tufuga
National Security Analyst.
20th February, 2022.
Source:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revolution_of_Dignity
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Ukraine
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_annexation_of_Crimea_by_the_Russian_Federation
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flag_of_Novorossiya
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsk_Protocol
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/19/world/ukraine-russia-news
https://www.gazprom.com/about/marketing/europe/
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/02/17/minsk-agreement-ukraine-russia-peace/
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/18/g7-says-ready-for-serious-dialogue-with-russia-on-ukraine-live
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/ukraine-receives-second-batch-us-weapons-russian-stand-off-2022-01-23/
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